Dr. Blackwell's BLOG

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Predictions and Analyses

Filed under: Politics — Dr. Christopher Blackwell @ 00:25

vp_splash_carmag.jpgOnly 5 days until the General Election of the United States and it’s time for some predictions and analyses. This analysis will include a McCain victory, an Obama victory, the historic context of this election, and Florida’s Amendment 2, seeking to ban same-sex marriage within the state:

 A McCain Victory: A John McCain victory can be predicted and assessed in many ways. While many have begun to release a sigh of relief given the current Electoral College map predictions and current polls, an Obama win is NOT a guarantee of any kind. If enough conservatives and Republicans are motivated (for whatever reason) to turnout in droves and the opposite occurs with Obama’s supporters, then McCain could win by a razor-thin edge. A McCain win means a couple of different things. First, this would be an amazing defeat for the Democrats. In a time of unprecedented dislike for the current President and his party along with the failing economy and the large sum of money spent by Obama, a McCain victory would highlight a highly weak political party. But, on the other side of the coin, a McCain win could signal the beginning of the end of the way America will be governed. Sociologic research indicates lower-aged persons (18-30 and even those younger) are increasingly more-and-more liberal. Social “issues” like gay marriage, abortion, stem cell research, etc. are all a joke for the vast majority of those within these age groups. As they continue to reach voting age and show-up to the polls, the Republicans as we know them will have no choice but to change their perspectives in order to regain or retain power. However, McCain’s win could also signal another weak point with Obama and his inability to turn-out the youth vote. Either way, the chance of Sarah Palin actually becoming president is quite high as the average life expectancy in men in the US is about 74 years.  PREDICTION IF McCAIN WINS: McCain will not live through term, Republicans lose in 2012.

An Obama Victory: All current polling data strongly suggest Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States. The United States is “fed-up” with the Republican Party, particularly under the leadership of a President with the highest disproval ratings in American history. Most Americans blame the failed economy, the Iraq War debacle, stifled infusion of modern society’s viewpoints into most social policies, a floundering healthcare system, etc. on the Republicans, and more specifically, George Bush. This has resulted in a major shift in support to the Democrats and their rising star Barack Obama. Most believe Obama provides realistic solutions to problems; and McCain’s often unprofessional and demeaning interactions and classifications of Obama have dramatically hurt his public image and likeability. If Obama wins, these above reasons provide the rationale. If Obama loses, then either the factors listed under A McCain Win is the rationale; it is also possible race played a more significant role than thought. Perhaps too many Americans were uncomfortable voting for an African American given their own internal prejudices. Either way, it’s possible if Obama does win, he may lose re-election in 2o12 because fixing the damage Bush and his fellow Republicans have caused is going to take longer than 4 years. PREDICTION: Obama loses Florida, Wins election by small-to-moderate lead.

 Historical Context: No matter who wins the Presidential Election, history will be made. If McCain wins, the nation will have elected its first elderly president (elderly is generally considered those > 65); and his Vice President, Sarah Palin, will be the first female ever-elected to the nation’s highest branch. If Barack Obama wins, he will become the first African American to have been elected to the Office of the President.

Amendment 2: Amendment 2, falsely worded and promoted as the “Marriage Protection Act,” has possibly major disastrous effects on Floridians. In addition to its roots in hatred, ignorance, and bigotry, Amendment 2 is terribly confusing in its wording and fails to frame the question in a non-biased manner. It’s also a warning sign of a further encroachment of radical religious beliefs infiltrating state social policy.  Unfortunately, Amendment 2 will probably pass for two main reasons or both: 1) Failure of voters to understand what Amendment 2 really means and/or its consequences on both gay and straight couples; 2) Large number of elderly and right-wing Christian voters who believe religious infusion into public policy is a good thing because it is “God’s will.” PREDICTION: Amendment 2 Passes. Possibly overturned through US Supreme Court decision or federal civil unions statutes initiated under Barack Obama.

Please make sure you vote November 4th if you haven’t already done so. Time is running out to educate your friends, family, and loved ones about why electing Barack Obama is so essential for America’s future. Let’s make sure we restore dignity, honor, respect, and intelligence back to the White House and the United States of America!

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