Dr. Blackwell's BLOG

It was reported today that after Thanksgiving, President-Elect Barack Obama will name Hillary Clinton the Secretary of State for his cabinet. Obama, who has wasted no time in reviewing Bush’s executive orders (including the ban on stem cell research which Obama vows to reverse immediately once he takes office) and policies on off-shore drilling, has been assembling a strong cabinet that will provide the essential leadership that has been largely lacking for the past 8 years. Although many suspected Clinton might be offered the post, some critics voiced concern over the extensive involvement in foreign affairs of her husband as a potential conflict of interest. However, these concerns were deemed unwarranted after President Clinton fully disclosed the financial documents of his charitable organizations that provide services to over 40 impoverished nations. This nomination unites Clinton with Obama officially and allows two very intelligent leaders the ability to form a partnership that should benefit the United States quite positively. Obama’s other appointments include Eric Holder as Attorney General and Tom Daschle as Health Secretary. Clinton’s departure of the Senate shouldn’t cause a significant impact as the likelihood of a Democrat replacing her would be quite high given the strong support Democrats enjoy in New York. Congratulations Hillary! Although Obama has yet to take office, he is already demonstrating extraordinary leadership as he begins to build his advising team.

A Look Back and Ahead: Hallelujah! On November 4th, Barack Obama won the national election to become the next President of the United States. Marked by unprecedented voter turnout, Obama will become the nation’s first African American President. This is indeed wonderful news for the United States and our allies throughout the world. Those who voted for Obama supported him based on his positive message of change, realistic and equitable approaches to solving our current economic turmoil, and cool and intelligent views on foreign and social policy. Just as importantly, the national balance of power dramatically shifted to the Democrats, who increased their dominance of the House and Senate. As of this writing, it appears they lack the votes needed for a super-majority (>60%). But the American people have clearly spoken: ENOUGH IS ENOUGH! I am so hopeful our new leaders will be able to amend the ravages the Republicans have caused over the last 8 years. It will take much longer than Obama’s first term; but if Americans are steadfast, I have the utmost faith President Obama will move-us beyond the failures of George Bush and the Republicans and bring the USA back to its once thriving self.

Pre-Election Predictions: My predictions were fairly accurate with one great exception: Obama won Florida! Amendment 2 sadly passed as predicted and although Obama handed McCain a bloodbath in the Electoral College (338 vs. 141 votes as of this writing), as I predicted, the national and Florida popular votes were much tighter, (51.3% to 47.5% and 51% to 48% respectively as of this writing).

Future Sociopolitical Significance: As I mentioned earlier, one of my predictions was an Obama win signaling a deep-changing political outlook beginning in the United States. Interesting, watching CNN it appears many of their political scientists agree with me. 66% of young voters who were eligible to vote did so (the vast majority throwing their support to Obama). I have seen a trend in the sociological research (and in my own research studies) towards a much more liberal approach to governance within younger persons, who are now reaching voting age. This could be a sign the Republican Party as we know it is going to have to change their political platform dramatically if they want to remain contenders for a political voice in the United States. Of course, this trend may have not as been as strong in Florida, where voters approved Amendment 2.

Amendment 2: As I predicted, Amendment 2, the so-called “Marriage Protection Amendment” passed, earning more than the 60% needed for inclusion in Florida’s State Constitution. Confusion in wording which made the Amendment appear positive might have attributed to this; but more than likely religious-fueled ignorance, homophobia, and bigotry played a much larger role. On a personal note, as an openly gay man born and raised in Florida, I have never in my life been more fearful of discrimination and governmental intrusion into my life. Growing-up as a gay person is so difficult and making the incredibly difficult choice to come-out and be honest about yourself to your friends, family, and loved ones is a remarkably difficult yet liberating decision. This Amendment is a direct assault on me as a person, essentially telling me who I love and commit myself to is not acceptable by law, making my life less valuable than that of a heterosexual. I guess the promise of our founders to provide American life “with liberty and justice for all” doesn’t apply to me. However, Obama’s election does provide some bright light. If President Obama keeps his word and fights hard for civil unions or marriage equality for everyone, the shift in power to the Democrats may be just enough to create legislation that provides the legal validity to these partnerships, which would overturn these Amendments at the state level. Either way, I have never been disgraced to be a Floridian. This disgusting Amendment has truly brought disgrace to our state.

Regardless of who you supported, please join our next President Barack Obama as he and the new Democratic leaders embark on the daunting challenge to restore America back to where it was before the Republicans practically destroyed it. God bless the United States of America and congratulations to our new President-Elect, Barack Obama.

Only 5 days until the General Election of the United States and it’s time for some predictions and analyses. This analysis will include a McCain victory, an Obama victory, the historic context of this election, and Florida’s Amendment 2, seeking to ban same-sex marriage within the state:

 A McCain Victory: A John McCain victory can be predicted and assessed in many ways. While many have begun to release a sigh of relief given the current Electoral College map predictions and current polls, an Obama win is NOT a guarantee of any kind. If enough conservatives and Republicans are motivated (for whatever reason) to turnout in droves and the opposite occurs with Obama’s supporters, then McCain could win by a razor-thin edge. A McCain win means a couple of different things. First, this would be an amazing defeat for the Democrats. In a time of unprecedented dislike for the current President and his party along with the failing economy and the large sum of money spent by Obama, a McCain victory would highlight a highly weak political party. But, on the other side of the coin, a McCain win could signal the beginning of the end of the way America will be governed. Sociologic research indicates lower-aged persons (18-30 and even those younger) are increasingly more-and-more liberal. Social “issues” like gay marriage, abortion, stem cell research, etc. are all a joke for the vast majority of those within these age groups. As they continue to reach voting age and show-up to the polls, the Republicans as we know them will have no choice but to change their perspectives in order to regain or retain power. However, McCain’s win could also signal another weak point with Obama and his inability to turn-out the youth vote. Either way, the chance of Sarah Palin actually becoming president is quite high as the average life expectancy in men in the US is about 74 years.  PREDICTION IF McCAIN WINS: McCain will not live through term, Republicans lose in 2012.

An Obama Victory: All current polling data strongly suggest Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States. The United States is “fed-up” with the Republican Party, particularly under the leadership of a President with the highest disproval ratings in American history. Most Americans blame the failed economy, the Iraq War debacle, stifled infusion of modern society’s viewpoints into most social policies, a floundering healthcare system, etc. on the Republicans, and more specifically, George Bush. This has resulted in a major shift in support to the Democrats and their rising star Barack Obama. Most believe Obama provides realistic solutions to problems; and McCain’s often unprofessional and demeaning interactions and classifications of Obama have dramatically hurt his public image and likeability. If Obama wins, these above reasons provide the rationale. If Obama loses, then either the factors listed under A McCain Win is the rationale; it is also possible race played a more significant role than thought. Perhaps too many Americans were uncomfortable voting for an African American given their own internal prejudices. Either way, it’s possible if Obama does win, he may lose re-election in 2o12 because fixing the damage Bush and his fellow Republicans have caused is going to take longer than 4 years. PREDICTION: Obama loses Florida, Wins election by small-to-moderate lead.

 Historical Context: No matter who wins the Presidential Election, history will be made. If McCain wins, the nation will have elected its first elderly president (elderly is generally considered those > 65); and his Vice President, Sarah Palin, will be the first female ever-elected to the nation’s highest branch. If Barack Obama wins, he will become the first African American to have been elected to the Office of the President.

Amendment 2: Amendment 2, falsely worded and promoted as the “Marriage Protection Act,” has possibly major disastrous effects on Floridians. In addition to its roots in hatred, ignorance, and bigotry, Amendment 2 is terribly confusing in its wording and fails to frame the question in a non-biased manner. It’s also a warning sign of a further encroachment of radical religious beliefs infiltrating state social policy.  Unfortunately, Amendment 2 will probably pass for two main reasons or both: 1) Failure of voters to understand what Amendment 2 really means and/or its consequences on both gay and straight couples; 2) Large number of elderly and right-wing Christian voters who believe religious infusion into public policy is a good thing because it is “God’s will.” PREDICTION: Amendment 2 Passes. Possibly overturned through US Supreme Court decision or federal civil unions statutes initiated under Barack Obama.

Please make sure you vote November 4th if you haven’t already done so. Time is running out to educate your friends, family, and loved ones about why electing Barack Obama is so essential for America’s future. Let’s make sure we restore dignity, honor, respect, and intelligence back to the White House and the United States of America!